US Fed’s influential Beige Book sees economy improving

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The latest publication of the US Federal Reserve’s influential Beige Book reported that the world’s largest economy had improved by the end of last month, albeit labour markets remained weak.

The Beige Book, which is compiled eight times a year, is based on reports and comments from businesses throughout the US and said that the housing market remains “depressed overall”.

Almost half of the 12 districts surveyed said there was evidence of improvement, with five showing signs of stabilisation since the last report in July.

The report said economic activity overall had “continued to stabilise”, with “modest improvements” in the manufacturing sector.

However, retail sales in most districts remained flat which is a worrying prospect since consumer spending in the US makes up for approximately two-thirds of overall economic activity.

Last week, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz expressed his concern for a “double-dip” recession in the US.

Mr Stiglitz, who said he has been consulted on an informal basis by the Obama Administration to discuss economic issues, said “the prospects of a robust recovery are very, very weak”.

Mr Stiglitz, who is also a former World Bank chief economist, said there was a “significant chance” that the economy could shrink again after a period of low growth.

In his gloomy assessment, he also said: “It is not possible to predict whether we have a malaise or a W (shaped growth pattern). But there is a significant chance of a W.”

In related news, the US unemployment rate has hit a 26-year high of 9.7% after figures revealed that 216,000 jobs were lost in August.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the economy has lost 6.9 million jobs and there are currently 14.9 million unemployed Americans.

Many economists believe the US unemployment rate could reach 10% by the end of 2009.

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