I opened up a modest portfolio on July 16th, taking advantage of what appeared to be a low point in the markets, especially for US shares.

Since then most of the US financials I invested in have risen above their July 15th trough, but there's just too much volatility and threat of further banking failures that early this week I sold off the last of my shares.

I only made around 5% in two months - pants, really, considering that at one point I was up 37% - but alright considering my investments included Lehman, Merrill, Freddie Mac and HBOS.

Anyway, I'm expecting Wachovia Bank and Ambac to be threatened with crises now, and I think Lloyds over here is under a heck of a lot of pressure on price.

All in all, too volatile for my risk profile, so I'm out for at least a couple of weeks.

Might re-open something before the Paulson Plan comes into effect, and especially before the next quarterly financials on October 15th.

In the meantime, I need to play more cautious - too easy to get burned at present.

Actually, looking at today's futures on the NYSE, looks like a look of distressed stock - ie, potential bargains.

Am sorely tempted to set up something anew, especially if we really do see a plan worked on ready for Monday.

However, I get nervy about investing on a Friday - especially as the past few weekends have been big bad news generators.

Okay, I invested across a range of US financials earlier today. So far progress has been relatively flat overall - but the expectation is that if Congress does approve the bail out, then these will all shoot up on Monday.

I have a range of shares that I should have sold earlier but being un involved did not. They've now dropped like a stone so I've decided to ride it out. Correct or foolish - who knows. I do have more cash that I could invest with and dilute the cost of those shares, do I do that or invest in others? IMVHO I do think the stock market will recover at some stage and as a small businessman my turnover this year is 40% up on last year, so reasonably happy.

I think we'll see the bottoming out over October - hoping to invest again pretty soon.

I think Gold and Silver is where its going to be at. Might drop down to $750 in short term but long term Gold is seriously under valued... Should top $1500 come christmas or just after.

I think we are seeing a bottom forming at the moment. The capitulation point may have been last week, but I would not bet against a very rocky period coming up.

Right now and over the last few months I have, mostly, stayed out of direct stock and traded the indices for what has been quite a successful few months. Having diciplined stops has been the name of the game and riding the big moves with adjustable stops and limits has been a good strategy.

This week I want to see what the various bail out packages start to look like with more flesh on the bones, but I will be dipping my toes.

Brian, if specifics hit the compliance fan, just delete but Morgan Stanley is one I have been buying at reasonable levels and today I have picked up Lloyds and other banks which have been batterred in the UK. I will be buying these at these and any levels lower than this over the next few weeks to build up quite a position, I think the UK government has effectivley made these a failure impossibility. (Hope that doesn't bite me in the bum!)

Trading the FTSE and the Dow will be my 'hedge' not necessarily to save the downside directly but to generate profit to protect the downside.
It is a risky play out there still, but if you have 'trading money' now is the time to start making moves.

A medium term strategy would be to buy in the dips and sell in the rallies, but I have taken the opinion that buying now and averaging down on the dips is our position with an exit in the new year or on significant rallies.
Good luck....

Wow...

900 points + on the Dow and 90% up on MS... I would call that a 'significant rally'.. Although I would like to take credit for a great call, it was part of a strategy we could see unfolding over a couple of weeks, not a couple of sessions! Nevertheless, a good day at the office. Its one of those days where calling clients to give an update on their discretionary accounts will be very pleasant.


Hope you all managed to make some money on 'Marvelous Monday'. Let's hope we see Terrific Tuesday. Have not closed my e-mini futures on the Dow yet and we are currently up (as of writing) over 1000 points since we put the trade on.

Anyone who isn't familiar with trading the Dow futures we talk about the CBOT Dow E-mini on the site. It really is a great way of trading the Dow and with disciplined stops and limits it is an efficient way of catching some of these wild swings, long or short.

I have a 100 point trailing stop at 10 point intervals on the Dow now. This means that every 10 points the Dow goes up the stop becomes 100 points below the new high. Eventually we will give up 100 points ($500 per contract) but we will also not be caught out on the upside by swings less than 100 points to maximise profits. During this session, if we have not be stopped out we may just take a view on cutting the poisition.

Good luck all. I am almost at the point of singing 'Happy days are here again'... but not yet...

The point about stops is crucial - I learned that when I entered in July, saw my portfolio rise 37%, then flop down flat again by September!

I agree. Being disciplined with stops and limits is hard. When I first started trading, many moons ago, I was totally useless with stops as when you have researched well it is hard to admit you were wrong, at least in the short term.

Now I use trailing stops and programmed stops. Sometimes you can input trades, like today for example, knowing there is profit and just leave the system to deal with the trades.