i have a newbie question. I don't know if I should invest in a stock or forex market?

and I have a little money what should I do?

If i were you i would invest in an emrging market fund . I.e china it went up 252 percent last year

I would not advice you to invest in China at all, especially not at current levels.

Past success is not guarantee for future performance. China seems to really have formed a bubble and I would not recommend anyone to enter that market at the moment.

Equity markets or FX?

Really depends on which you understand more. They are both great places to be in but as with everything you either need to know what you are doing or have someone who can tell you what you need to do.

What is your risk tolerance?

listen to triton , he knows his stuff but i prefer emerging markets per se for risk exposure , currencies for me is too fast an unpredictable.

Emerging markets can of course be an addition to your overall portfolio I just don't like China at current levels.

If you decide to play emerging markets I would recommend to stick to those markets which you understand and beware of the risks associated with those markets.

A pointer with investments is that you ideally want to be in at the beginning of any growth curve, rather than join one at the top - so the astute investor will be looking at what may start or have already started a good strong growth curve, as opposed to jumping in at the top of one where the risks of a downturn can threaten returns.

2c.

Good point Brian.

Another pointer is that there's a huge difference between stocks and forex.

Stocks overall see an upwards movement over time

However, forex is a zero-sum game - you can only gain if someone else loses.

That makes forex closer to outright gambling as you're betting on an outcome, rather than placing money somewhere to grow. In fact, I know people online who run affiliation schemes for mainstream gambling are moving into the forex market now, I guess because it's a market with a significant sector of gambler profiles rather than safe investor profiles.

2c.

Brian would you say cotton and corn would be 2 growth areas for 2008

That's a hard question to answer, Brian. What do you think?

I really wouldn't say unless I looked more deeply at these.

The fact that wheat has been trading at record prices means either wheat just became the new oil in terms of continued price inflation, or else it's just going to come down again. As a significant factor in wheat price growth has been bad weather and harvest over this year - an El Nino related year - that means I would expect fewer issues with wheat prices next year when harvests should be better served.

The push influence on wheat prices is whether the biofuels industry will continue to put the squeeze on competition for supplies, IMO.

Relating to corn, because of expected better harvest next year, and unlikely scenario of people moving from wheat products to corn products, my personal thoughts are that there are no major pressures for growth in the price of corn.

As for cotton - afraid no idea on that as not really covered it in detail, but if it's seen price rises recently due to this years bad weather, I'll therefore think as above that prices wouldn't see the same upward pressure.

Consumer demand from China and India as the main growth engine, but I'm under the impression that I've read of a slight slowing of the Chinese economy, so I wouldn't call it a good bet personally.

I posted here months ago that I expected oil to continue to rise, and I really don't see any real downward pressures on oil prices this side of a US presidential election (which may change policy on the MiddleEast), but I'm not expecting so much growth over the next 2 years - maybe around $117/barrel after 18-24 months, presuming there's no significant slowdown in demand that can bring oil demand closer in line with surplus supplies. At present there remains a series shortage in refinery availability, so IMO it's not crude that you'll want to watch the price on as much as refined oil products.

I also think YHOO remains one of the most underpriced stocks in internet services (my main background), and GOOG the most over-priced - but these are rational decisions, and the market is more interested in herd mentality which will determine ultimately if YHOO goes strong or GOOG falls.

2c.

Personally, I wouldn't bet any money on a strong 2008 for corn and cotton but that is juts my personal opinion without doing any real research on it.

I agree with you Brian that GOOG is very over-priced.

You are absolutely correct when it comes to oil. The problem is less crude supplies but rather refined products. Price pressures are definately on the upside. We may see a few small corrections but overall move higher.

Interesting to see what happens at $100 per barrel.

Will we see a small correction back down to $90 or will the momentum move the price very fast to $110?

Time will tell.

On the point of oil - I have a nasty suspicion oil producing countries are manipulating the price of oil according to dollar value, in order to make up for the fall in income when the dollar falls in value, so that if we see another rate cut by the Fed, I'll expect to see the price of oil go up on any pretext.

However, as the Fed suggests they don't want many more rate cuts, I think we'll see the price of oil stabilise with that.

Simply 2c.

Well, the problem with commodities is that they are priced in U.S. Dollars and if the currency moves lower prices will move higher as a result of the weak currency.

Do they try to make up for the currency loss?

I htink OPEC has lost control over oil prices a long-time ago but they definately reap the benefits of the U.S. Fed strategy (ok, maybe it's not their 'strategy' but that is what they currently do) of destroying any value left in the U.S. Dollar.

You are right, if the U.S. Dollar stabalizes oil prices may stabalize as well...unless geopolitical events will heat up.

Goog continues to fall - yhoo just went up 58% on pretrade on the announcement of Microsoft's offer to buy.

I know my industry...

Hello Mr. Newbie,

First, Never – ever - never “play the market.” When you enter the stock market today, it’s only slightly different than you entering the coliseum in ancient Rome in 80 AD; as you watch in terror as a gladiator rushes you. Just as the gladiators back then had one intention when they entered the arena – too kill; professional traders are not too much different in that regards. Professional traders have one objective, and that is to make money – they never play the market. Fortunately for the losers in this modern day coliseum, they are seldom killed, but to a certain extent, they are financially decapitated or crippled.

Second, abandon any preconceived opinions you might have about where you think the market will or will not go – Trying to convince the stock market that you are right can be very expensive.

Third, realize that the markets are in fact a zero sum game, in order for you to make money - someone else will have to lose it so prepare yourself thoroughly.

Fourth and most importantly, know that every word discussed here is absolutely useless, without the proper money management supporting it.

Wall Street truism.

Kevin Teeple

Depends on your idea, target and sometimes amount you want to invest.
Do you want just keep your money with little percentage profit or you want to risk and earn good income?