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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 11-05-2007, 05:34 PM
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Default Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

IS backwardation and contango the up and down movement of a futures price when it adjusts its self to the spot price.
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Old 11-05-2007, 09:16 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

Not exactly, no.

Backwardation describes a condition were more distant future contracts have a smaller value then near contracts.

Contango describes a condition when distant delivery months are higher priced then the current spot price.
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Old 11-05-2007, 09:44 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

In ETFS they say that a rolling affect from contango and backwardiation effects the price. So does that mean that they have a adjust the price via a contango or backwardiation effect.
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Old 11-06-2007, 02:22 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

Equally what exactly is collateral interest.
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Old 11-06-2007, 03:24 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

I am not quite sure about ETFs and you may want to contact your broker with that particular question. You should get an answer there. I don't want to give you incorrect info.

Personally, I never wasted any time on ETFs.


Collateral interest is interest income which is used as collateral to secure a liability.
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Old 11-06-2007, 03:39 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

Not sure why you give ETFs the cold shoulder a majority of the commodities etfs have given a return of 30 percent in 3 months which isnt bad for the casual investor who makes alot more money doing his primary interest.

P.s i thank you in advance for all your help
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Old 11-06-2007, 04:48 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

I think the issue is that Triton is effectively looking to manage his own funds, while an ETF and other fund are already managed, usually in a kind of arbitrary way that doesn't allow for much flexibility with individual investment choices.

Commodities may have gone up over 3 months, but IMO you may be better off looking to investment cycles, unless you're planning to chop and change your fund sources on a very regular basis.
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Old 11-06-2007, 04:53 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

I Think we are going to wait until we have a made a decent amount of return but at the same time not to hold on for too long , but then use the profit for the enxt thing etc etc.
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Old 11-06-2007, 04:59 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

One big reason why I dislike ETFs (and absolutely hate MFs) is that the performance in my opinion is very bad.

True, commodity ETFs have performed well over the past few weeks and that was due to strong commodity prices.

Other ETFs that track averages haven't done that well. Any index is just an average and personally I think if you set investment returns and standards based on the average you set the bar very very low.

It doesn't really take that much to beat the average.

Can commodity ETFs be a temporary part of the overall portfolio?

Of course.

But that never gave me enough reason to spend enough time to fully research them.

They were never part of my investment strategy.
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Old 11-06-2007, 05:11 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

At the moment the investments next year will see my neck on the block hence i would rather go safe on ETFS than try and act more experienced than i am . Sure later on yes i will develop but it is important for me to make that initial 20 percent to prove to the board that this is a good way to use surplus cash.
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Old 11-06-2007, 09:23 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

What makes you so sure that you will get that performance out of the ETF which you choose?

Remember:

Past perfromance is no guarantee for future performance.

It is always easy to look back and say 'I would have gotten 30% over the past three months IF I would have invested in this or that'.

Sure, ETFs are more safe then individual stocks (if you decide to choose on your own) and you need to choose what you think is right for you.

Just don't assume that your ETFs will have a great performance just because they have had periodic spikes. It goes both ways. Choose careful.
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Old 11-06-2007, 10:07 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

I will i wont be fool hardy with family money . I might put a small amount in at first and see if i got the knack. Would you recommend this for starters just for peace of mind.
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Old 11-07-2007, 12:10 PM
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Default Re: Understanding Contango , Backwardation ?

Well, if it makes you feel save and if you can sleep at night with an ETF investment and if you are comfortable with the ROI then you should go ahead and invest in one.

Keep on thing in mind:

The commodity ETF which you seem to favor may only track one commodity, i.e. oil, gold, etc.

They are not exactly diversified and tied to that one commodity only.

If it is diversification which you seek for peace of mind you need to choose an index ETF.
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