What should you expect from March as far as Equity Markets are concerned?
This may be among the questions many investors try to determine right now. January proved to be one of the best starts to a trading year and February was ‘Another Great Month for Global Equity Markets’.
Investors should expect the same from March which should provide more opportunities than investors can capitalize on.
Week 1 will have a few important economic reports that will leave an impact on markets. On Monday the ISM-Manufacturing Survey is likely to disappoint the bulls which will be followed by Wednesday’s ISM-Non Manufacturing Survey. Thursday’s focus will be on Initial Jobless Claims as well as decision from the BoE and ECB about interest rates in Europe (rates should remain on hold) and finally Friday will bring the ever so important Employment Report for the U.S. job market.
Week 2 will be a bit quieter but Tuesday will show the International Trade numbers followed Thursday by Retail Sales as well as Initial Jobless Claims. Friday will present the CPI which is likely to show another sharp increase in inflation.
Week 3 will be loaded with economic data. Monday will kick off with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey (which is likely to show further contraction) and Industrial Production. Tuesday’s releases will include Housing Starts (expect more bad news) as well as the PPI which will show another pick-up in inflation and finally the FOMC announcement (this is a bit tricky bit Bernanke may lower rates once again…expect a sharp drop in markets to follow regardless of the Fed decision and any short-term rally that may occur should be approached with caution). Thursday will feature Initial Jobless Claims as well as the Philly Fed Survey (more contraction should be expected).
Enjoy the long weekend.
Week 4 will be less eventful as far as reports are concerned. Wednesday will show Durable Goods Orders while Thursday will once again give us Initial Jobless Claims as well as the final GDP figure for the fourth-quarter (do not be surprised by a one tenth downward revision in growth). Friday will provide Personal Income and Consumption figures (expect further disappointment).
Most reports should point towards a recession and expect equity markets to close March in negative territory. That is by no means a bad sign but you need to be positioned to take full advantage of the opportunities presented to you by the markets.
‘Inflation is a problem…’ and ‘Bernanke fight the battle on the wrong front…’ while the ‘U.S. economy hits the brakes…’
‘Friday’s economic reports Send another Clear Message’ and keep one thing in mind as you go to sleep tonight:
‘Friday’s close send another clear signal of a Bear Market’.
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