Yields were up on government bonds on Tuesday as trade remained light ahead of the four-day Thanksgiving Day weekend in the United States. US Treasury bonds were nearly unchanged by midday in New York, with the two-year bond adding 0.4 basis points to a yield of 4.783 percent, while ten-year issues were even, yielding 4.599 percent.
In the Eurozone, the two-year Schatz was 4.1 basis points higher, yielding 3.699 percent. The ten-year Bund gained 0.5 basis points to 3.718 percent.
Meanwhile, in the UK, a new manufacturing survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed a stronger than expected recovery in the sector. While the numbers were still in negative territory, order books were up to -6 in November after having been at -20 in October. While some analysts maintained that the recovery was not as strong as it seemed, others see the new data as supporting another rise in UK interest rates.
The two-year gilt added 1.1 basis points to yield 4.974 percent late in the London session. The 10-year gilt was up 1.3 basis points to 4.552 percent.
Yields were also up in Japan after an official of the Bank of Japan was quoted as saying that there is still a possibility of an interest rate hike in December. The two-year Japanese government bond was 2 basis points higher to 0.800 percent.
Prices for government bonds were up both in the United States and in Europe and the UK on Tuesday as producer price inflation fell more than had been anticipated. Core inflation was down more than in any month since August 1993. Meanwhile, while retail sales were down a bit less than had been expected in October, September’s numbers were revised downward. Both reports led to renewed hopes in some quarters that the Federal Reserve might drop interest rates early in the new year.
Yields on the two-year US Treasury bond dropped 3 basis points to a yield of 4.747 percent, while the ten-year bond was 3.7 basis points lower to 4.575 percent by the middle of the session in New York.
The price gains in the US helped Eurozone bonds. Economic growth in the region has been weaker than had been expected, while business sentiment in German was lower. Late in the day in London, the two-year Schatz had dropped 0.6 basis points to 3.703 percent, while the ten-year Bund was 1.5 basis points lower to a yield of 3.714 percent.
Inflation came in lower than expected in the UK. While October’s inflation was at 2.4 percent on an annualized basis, above what the Bank of England wants, it was less than analysts had thought it would be. The two-year gilt was yielding 4.957 percent, down 4.6 basis points, while the ten-year gilt was down 3.3 basis points to a yield of 4.531 percent.
Bucking the trend, the yield on ten-year Japanese government bonds added 6.5 basis points to yield 1.72 percent. Prices were down on new data that had the Japanese economy growing at more than twice the rate that had been expected in the third quarter.
Prices and yields on US Treasury bonds were mixed on Thursday on data that was equally mixed. The trade deficit narrowed less than had been expected in September. On the other hand, consumer confidence was lower in the US, with the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index down to 92.3 when a figure of 93.6 had been expected. In addition import prices were lower and unemployment claims were also down. Another factor in the day’s moves was relatively low interest in an auction of three-year paper on Wednesday; however, analysts were still optimistic for an upcoming auction of ten-year bonds.
At midday in New York, yields on the ten-year Treasury bond had dropped 0.2 basis points to 4.635 percent, but two-year yields were up b y 0.7 basis points to 4.756 percent.
In Europe, prices for longer-dated government bonds were higher but shorter-dated bonds held steady on the expectation that the European Central Bank will issue another interest rate hike in December. The two-year Schatz sat at a yield of 3.731 percent, while the ten-year Bund dropped 0.7 basis points to a yield of 3.740 percent.
Gilt prices in the UK were higher after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates, as had been expected. The two-year gilt fell 1.6 basis points to yield 5.073 percent, while the ten-year gilt dropped 2.9 basis points to 4.544 percent.
In Japan, the ten-year JGB dropped 2 basis points to a yield of 1.7 percent ahead of new gross domestic product date, to be released next week.
Yields were up on US Treasury bonds on Friday as a new report showed that unemployment in the United States fell to 4.4 percent in October. Even though job growth was at 92,000 new jobs in the month, less than had been anticipated, the numbers from previous months were revised upward. The new data diminished the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will drop interest rates early next year, but most analysts still do not see any rate hikes coming in the near future.
In late morning trade, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds were 10 basis points higher to a yield of 4.70 percent. The jump took yields up 2 basis points on the week.
In the Eurozone, bond yields were also up as expectations continued that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates next month. Unemployment in the region remained at 7.8 percent in September, as had been anticipated. The ten-year Bund added 2 basis points to a yield of 3.76 percent but was still 5 basis points lower than at the beginning of the week. In the UK, meanwhile, ten-year gilts were up 3 basis points on the day to 4.58 percent, but were fractionally lower than the 4.59 percent level where they were trading at the beginning of the week.
With the manufacturing index from the Institute of Supply Management down to 51.2 in October, well below the expected 53.0 level and lower than September’s figure of 52.9, prices for US Treasury bonds were up and yields declined on Wednesday. Some analysts see the new figures as beginning to contradict remarks out of the Federal Reserve that interest rates won’t be dropping anytime soon.
In late-morning trade in New York, the two-year Treasury bond was 4.6 basis points lower to 4.663 percent, while ten-year bonds had lost 2.8 basis points to a yield of 4.580 percent.
Yields were also lower in the eurozone and in the UK. Eurozone bonds were lower ahead of Thursday’s scheduled meeting of the European Central Bank, where most analysts expect interest rates to hold at 3.25 percent for the time being. Late in the trading day, the two-year Schatz was 3.9 basis points lower to a yield of 3.632 percent, while the ten-year Bund dropped 3.7 basis points to 3.703 percent. The two-year gilt fell 2.3 basis points lower to 5.010 percent, while the ten-year gilt was 0.5 basis points lower to a yield of 4.510 percent.
In Japan, government bonds were mixed, with two-year issues 2 basis points higher to 0.745 percent but ten-year bonds dropping 0.5 basis points to 1.720 percent amid speculation that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates by March 2007.
October 30, 2006
Federal Reserve official warns on inflation, interest rates
US Treasury bonds saw prices drop and yields rise after Jeffrey Lacker, the president of the Richmond, Virginia Federal Reserve bank made comments indicating that interest rate hikes were not out of the question, that there was still pressure toward inflation, and that the economy could be tightened further. Mr. Lacker was the only one to vote for a hike in rates at the Fed’s last meeting.
Elsewhere, new data showed US personal income 0.5 percent higher in September, more than had been anticipated, while personal consumption was up less than had been predicted at only a 0.1 percent rise in September. However, the PCE price index was up 2.4 percent year-on-year, more than the 2 percent gain that some Fed officials have said was the high end of the acceptable range.
At late morning in New York the two-year Treasury bond was 1.2 basis points higher to 4.767 percent, while ten-year bonds were up 0.6 basis points to a yield of 4.683 percent.
In the Eurozone, yields were mixed after sell-offs in the US bond market and slow demand for a new auction of government bonds in Italy. The two-year Schatz added 1 basis point to yield 3.723 percent, but the ten-year Bund lost 1.6 basis points to 3.789 percent.
Meanwhile, in the UK, gilts were mixed as well on strong date from the housing market. Two-year gilts added 5.9 basis points to 4.088 percent. Ten-year gilts, on the other hand, dropped 3.6 basis points to 4.564 percent.
In Japan, the ten-year government bond was 1 basis point lower to a yield of 1.730 percent after the Nikkei index dropped 1.9 percent ahead of the Bank of Japan’s latest summary of prices and the economy, published every six months and due on Tuesday.
Government bond prices were up and yields fell on Thursday in response to a decision by the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for the time being as well as its comments following the decision that did not sound too strong a warning on inflation. Also helping prices higher was new data on durable goods orders showing that, excluding transportation goods, orders were up just 0.1 percent in September. The ten-year US Treasury bond dropped 3.8 basis points to a yield of 4.73 percent.
In Europe, meanwhile, ten-year yields also fell in response to the Fed decision. The ten-year Bund dropped 1 basis point to 3.85 percent, while the ten-year gilt was 4 basis points lower to a yield of 4.66 percent. The price gains came as the president of the European Central Bank said that inflation would be an issue for the rest of this year and into next year.
In Japan, government bonds were helped by the US bond market, with the ten-year JGB falling 5 basis points to 1.750 percent. Shorter-dated bonds also saw prices go up and yields drop after an auction of two-year issues saw demand quadruple supply. Yields on two-year bonds were 0.3 basis points lower to 0.755 percent.
Prices were up and yields lower on US Treasury bonds during the week as investors remained wary ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for next week. Data releases during the week did not help determine the economy’s direction, although most analysts expect the Fed to hold interest rates at 5.25 percent again this month. At midday on Friday the ten-year Treasury bond was 0.4 basis points lower for the day to a yield of 4.786 percent. The ten-year issue had begun the week at 4.796 percent.
In the Eurozone, ten-year Bund yields were 0.2 basis points higher to 3.827 percent late in the session. European bonds were affected by the move on Thursday by two ratings agencies to downgrade Italy’s debt.
The yields on UK gilts were also higher on the day, on the expectation that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at their meeting next month. The two-year gilt was 3.8 basis points higher to a yield of 5.064 percent, while the ten-year gilt gained 2.8 basis points on the session to 4.693 percent. At the beginning of the week the two-year gilt was yielding 5.019 percent, while the ten-year gilt was at 4.642 percent. Friday’s two-year yield was its highest level since July 2002.
Prices on US Treasury bonds were down and yields rose on Friday on strong new sales data and figures showing consumer sentiment up more than had been expected in the US in October. Meanwhile, comments from Federal Reserve officials signaled worries about inflation and growth that seemed to indicate that there would be no interest rate cuts coming anytime soon.
By mid-morning in New York on Friday, the two-year Treasury bond was up 3 basis points to 4.87 percent, while ten-year issues had also gained 3 basis points to a yield of 4.81 percent. The two-year bond had started the week yielding 4.75 percent, while ten-year bonds began the week at a yield of 4.71 percent.
In the Eurozone, the October bulletin from the European Central Bank indicated that it could be near the end of its series of interest rate hikes, even though it also said that more hikes could be needed if the region’s economy continued to grow as it is now expected to do.
The two-year Schatz was up by 1.3 basis points to 3.67 percent after starting the week yielding 3.60 percent. The ten-year Bund added 1.5 basis points to a yield of 3.83 percent, from a starting yield of 3.77 percent on Monday.
Meanwhile, in the UK, longer-dated gilts saw prices decline as most analysts said they expect interest rates there to rise again in November.
Prices for US Treasury bonds were up a bit on Wednesday, and yields were lower, as investors looked for safe places to put their money in the wake of the North Korean nuclear test earlier this week and comments following that Pyongyang will treat any increased pressure from the US as a declaration of war. In addition, trade was muted ahead of the release of minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting and a speech from Richmond Fed President, who was the only board member who voted for an increase in interest rates at the meeting.
In morning trade in New York, the two-year Treasury bond dropped 3.8 basis points to 4.79 percent, while the ten-year issue fell 1.8 percent to a yield of 4.74 percent.
Most government bonds in Europe, meanwhile, held steady after a successful Schatz auction and economic growth forecasts for the last half of this year and the first half of next year that were lowered by the European Commission. Yields on the ten-year Bund dropped 0.9 percent to 3.811 percent, but the two-year Schatz was steady at a yield of 3.669 percent. In the UK, gilts held firm as well, with the two-year gilt at 5.011 percent and the ten-year gilt yielding 4.614 percent.
In Japan, meanwhile, yields were up as prices fell as the ten-year Japanese government bond added 2 basis points to 1.745 percent.
October 2, 2006
Japanese government bond yields up on Tankan figures
The Bank of Japan’s latest Tankan Survey of business sentiment sent most Japanese government bond yields higher on Monday. The ten-year bond saw yields 6.5 basis points higher to 1.740 percent. The two-year bond yields were also higher, but some issues that mature in less than a year saw yields decline.
Bond yields were lower in the United States, where the September figures from the Supply Management Institute were lower, showing manufacturing down more than had been expected. At late morning in New York, two-year Treasury bonds were down 4.1 basis points to a yield of 4.65 percent, while ten-year issues were yielding 4.60 percent, a decline of 3 basis points.
In Europe, Eurozone bond yields were lower as well after a more positive purchasing managers’ index report, which seemed to be trumped by higher prices in US bond markets. The two-year Schatz was 2.4 basis points lower to 3.553. The ten-year Bund, meanwhile, was down 2.6 basis points to a yield of 3.680 percent.
The latest purchasing managers’ index in the UK was also stronger than had been expected, sending yields on gilts higher. The two-year gilt gained 1.5 basis points to a yield of 4.939 percent, while the ten-year gilt added 0.5 basis points to 4.529 percent.
Government bonds markets saw yields up in the US, the UK and the Eurozone, while yields on Japanese government bonds were lower on Tuesday.
In the United States, a strong consumer confidence report sent Treasury bond yields up after three days of declines which had been prompted by the decision of the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold for the time being. The Conference Board put consumer confidence at 104.5 in September, above the expected reading of 103.0. At mid-morning in New York, the two-year Treasury bond was yielding 4.68 percent, a gain of 3.4 basis points, while the ten-year bond was 3.3 basis points higher to yield 4.58 percent.
In the Eurozone, bonds followed the lead of US issues. Meanwhile, a German business sentiment survey was also stronger than expected in September, adding to speculation that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again before the end of the year. Late in the day, the two-year Schatz had added 4.3 basis points to 3.515 percent and the ten-year Bund was 0.3 basis points higher to 3. 660 percent.
In Japan, government bond yields were lower as the stock market there declined and investors worried that the US could cut interest rates. Five-year yields were 3.5 basis points lower to 1.090 percent, while ten-year yields were at 1.615 percent, a drop of 2 basis points.
Yields were lower on US Treasury bonds on Thursday after the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s economic index fell to -0.4 in September. The index was at 18.5 in August, and had only been predicted to drop to 14.7 this month. The new reading indicates that manufacturing has contracted in the region, likely on the slowing housing market and lower consumer spending. Also contributing to lower yields was data showing more jobless claims last week than had been predicted.
By late morning in New York, two-year Treasury bonds were yielding 4.76 percent, a decline of 4.7 basis points. Meanwhile, ten-year issues had dropped 5.5 basis points to 4.68 percent, leading to an increase in the yield curve inversion.
Late in the day in Europe, Eurozone government bond yields were also lower. The two-year Schatz was 2.3 percent lower to a yield of 3.626 percent, while the ten-year Bund was yielding 3.758 percent, a decline of 2.9 basis points.
Yields were mixed in the UK late in the session, as the two-year gilt added 0.1 basis point to 4.979 percent, but the ten-year gilt fell by 2.7 basis points to a yield of 4.574 percent.
In Japan, the ten-year government bond was 2 basis points higher to 1.705 percent as the equities markets were slightly higher on the session. The price decline came even though there was strong demand for an auction of ¥800 billion in 20-year bonds.
September 18, 2006
Government bond yields up on interst rate concerns
Prices were down on government bonds in the Eurozone on Monday on continuing fears that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates beyond the end of the year. The fears were exacerbated by comments from ECB officials, and some analysts believe that rates could go beyond 4 percent next year. Late in the trading day, the two-year Schatz had added 3.6 basis points to a yield of 3.696 percent, while the ten-year Bund was yielding 3.829 percent, a gain of 5.4 basis points.
In the UK, gilts followed Eurozone yields upward after inflation and growth there were both revised up, setting up the possibility that the Bank of England will also raise interest rates again before the year is out. The two-year gilt added 5.7 basis points to 5.027 percent, while the ten-year gilt was 8.2 basis points higher to 4.658 percent.
Data showing that foreigners are buying fewer US Treasury bonds, along with anticipation of Tuesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve, sent yields up on Treasury bonds as well. Two-year bonds were yielding 4.91 percent, a gain of 3.8 basis points, while ten-year issues also added 3.8 basis points to 4.83 percent.
New data on consumer price inflation data sent prices of US Treasury bonds up on Friday. Both headline and core consumer prices were up by 0.2 percent in August, according to the latest survey. Also helping bonds prices to rise was a survey showing that consumer sentiment has improved in the United States. In late-morning trade in New York, the ten-year Treasury bond was down 2.6 basis points to 4.77 percent.
Eurozone bonds were also helped by better sentiment in the US after a week in which investors worried about statements from officials that tended to indicate that interest rate hikes are on the way in Europe, possibly in both October and December. By late in the session, yields on the ten-year bund were down by 3.6 basis points to 3.770 percent.
In the UK, investors were looking forward to the minutes from this month’s meeting of the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England for a hint as to where interest rates there might go next. Yields on the ten-year gilt were a bit higher, up 0.4 basis points to 4.580 percent Friday.
Prices dropped on US Treasury bonds Monday ahead of a scheduled auction of 10-year bonds on Tuesday. Also affecting prices were anticipation of new data to be released during the week. In addition, traders were exiting safe-haven trades that had been made ahead of today’s anniversary of the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington, D.C.
In late-morning trade in New York, the two-year Treasury bond had added 2.1 basis points to a yield of 4.84 percent, while ten-year bonds were 3.2 basis points higher to 4.81 percent.
In the Eurozone, investors followed early news from New York, sending yields up. The two-year Schatz added 1.9 basis points to 3.659 percent. The ten-year Bund, meanwhile, was 0.7 basis points higher to 3.798 percent.
UK gilts were also yielding more, with the two-year gilt adding 2.8 basis points to 4.894 percent and the ten-year gilt advancing by 3.2 basis points to 4.571 percent.
In Japan, however, yields on government bonds were lower after machinery orders data was lower than had been expected leading to declining expectations that interest rates will rise again soon. Economic growth there was also revised upward less than had been predicted, to an annualized 1 percent. The news sent yields on ten-year government bonds 6 basis points lower to 1.675 percent.
Prices for government bonds were up in the Eurozone, the US and the UK on Friday.
In the Eurozone, prices on bonds dropped early in the week as investors sold despite positive new data after officials of the European Central Bank made comments that indicated there are more interest rate hikes to come. Prices rose, however, on Friday as investors seemed to forget their concerns about interest rates. Still, even though yields on the ten-year Bund were 2.6 basis points lower to 3.783 percent, they were still higher than they were at the beginning of the week. In the UK, meanwhile, the ten-year gilt was 2.9 basis points lower to a yield of 4.536 percent on Friday.
At midday on Friday in New York, yields on the ten-year US Treasury bond were 2.8 basis points lower to 4.764 percent. Early in the week, prices were affected by new data on labor costs that raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again soon, but later on in the week buying increased due to what some called safe-haven buying as the anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks approached.
In Japan, on the other hand, yields were up slightly as the ten-year government bond went from a yield of 1.663 percent on Monday to 1.735 percent Friday.
Yields were up on US Treasury bonds on Wednesday as investors worried that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again. The fears came on data from the US Labor Department showing that labor unit costs were up in the second quarter. At late morning in New York, yields on two-year bond were up 3.7 basis points to 4.841 percent, while ten-year yields were at 4.823 percent, a gain of 3.8 basis points.
In the Eurozone, comments from an official of the European Central Bank as well as new data showing factory orders in German up more than had been expected sent yields up. Late in the session, the two-year Schatz had added 3.3 basis points to a yield of 3.616 percent, while the ten-year Bund was 3.2 basis points higher to 3.829 percent.
Data showed manufacturing output up in the UK for the third month in a row, sending gilt yields higher there. The two-year gilt was up 2.1 basis points to 4.881 percent. The ten-year gilt added 2.3 basis points to 4.752 percent.
In Japan, meanwhile, the ten-year government bond held steady at 1.714 percent ahead of comments by the governor of the Bank of Japan, expected at the end of its current meeting.
Bond prices rose and yields fell to their lowest levels in several months this week on slower economic growth worldwide as well as on lower rates of inflation.
Trade in US Treasury bonds was light as a number of new economic reports were issued during the week. A turning point was the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting, which indicated that while more internet rate hikes might be in store they are by no means certain. The current feeling among most analysts is that there is only a 10 percent chance that US interest rates will go up this month. In addition, August’s unemployment figures were close to expectations as 128,000 jobs were created. Average hourly earnings were only up by 0.1 percent, however, another indication that another rate hike might not be necessary.
The ten-year US Treasury bond yielded 4.73 percent on Friday, down by over 5 basis points during the week.
In the UK, ten-year gilts were also down by around 5 basis points to a yield of 4.495 percent, and have fallen by 26.5 basis points since the middle of August. Among the data affecting gilt prices were house prices that are 6.5 percent higher over the year so far, mortgage lending at a 6-month high, and retail sales up at the fastest pace in a year and a half.
In the Eurozone, the ten-year Bund also lost about 5 basis points during the week to a yield of 3.739 percent as most analysts expect that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again before the year is out.
Meanwhile, in Japan, ten-year government bonds were yielding 1.645 percent, a decline of 4.4 basis points.
Yields on US Treasury bonds were lower and prices rose on Wednesday on new data that showed the core inflation rate for the second quarter was less than originally reported, while the economy grew faster in the quarter than had been estimated earlier. The president of the Dallas Federal Reserve commented that he was still not happy with the inflation data, but that the GDP numbers were “healthy”.
Ten-year Treasury bonds were yielding 4.767 percent, a decline from their late Tuesday yield of 4.785 percent.
In the Eurozone, yields were also down ahead of the next meeting of the European Central Bank, scheduled for Thursday. The ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady this year, but analysts are looking for a hike in October. Higher prices for US Treasury bonds also helped Eurozone prices up. The ten-year Bund yielded 4.54 percent late in the session, a decline of 3 basis points.
Gilt yields in the UK were also lower late in the day, as the ten-year gilt dropped 2 basis points to 4.54 percent. Earlier in the day, bond prices lagged as new UK economic data was fairly strong, putting into question what the Bank of England will do about interest rates when it meets next. Mortgage rates and new loan approvals wee both up in July to their highest points since the beginning of the year.
