Government bond prices were up and yields fell on Thursday in response to a decision by the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for the time being as well as its comments following the decision that did not sound too strong a warning on inflation. Also helping prices higher was new data on durable goods orders showing that, excluding transportation goods, orders were up just 0.1 percent in September. The ten-year US Treasury bond dropped 3.8 basis points to a yield of 4.73 percent.
In Europe, meanwhile, ten-year yields also fell in response to the Fed decision. The ten-year Bund dropped 1 basis point to 3.85 percent, while the ten-year gilt was 4 basis points lower to a yield of 4.66 percent. The price gains came as the president of the European Central Bank said that inflation would be an issue for the rest of this year and into next year.
In Japan, government bonds were helped by the US bond market, with the ten-year JGB falling 5 basis points to 1.750 percent. Shorter-dated bonds also saw prices go up and yields drop after an auction of two-year issues saw demand quadruple supply. Yields on two-year bonds were 0.3 basis points lower to 0.755 percent.
Prices were up and yields lower on US Treasury bonds during the week as investors remained wary ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for next week. Data releases during the week did not help determine the economy’s direction, although most analysts expect the Fed to hold interest rates at 5.25 percent again this month. At midday on Friday the ten-year Treasury bond was 0.4 basis points lower for the day to a yield of 4.786 percent. The ten-year issue had begun the week at 4.796 percent.
In the Eurozone, ten-year Bund yields were 0.2 basis points higher to 3.827 percent late in the session. European bonds were affected by the move on Thursday by two ratings agencies to downgrade Italy’s debt.
The yields on UK gilts were also higher on the day, on the expectation that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at their meeting next month. The two-year gilt was 3.8 basis points higher to a yield of 5.064 percent, while the ten-year gilt gained 2.8 basis points on the session to 4.693 percent. At the beginning of the week the two-year gilt was yielding 5.019 percent, while the ten-year gilt was at 4.642 percent. Friday’s two-year yield was its highest level since July 2002.
Prices on US Treasury bonds were down and yields rose on Friday on strong new sales data and figures showing consumer sentiment up more than had been expected in the US in October. Meanwhile, comments from Federal Reserve officials signaled worries about inflation and growth that seemed to indicate that there would be no interest rate cuts coming anytime soon.
By mid-morning in New York on Friday, the two-year Treasury bond was up 3 basis points to 4.87 percent, while ten-year issues had also gained 3 basis points to a yield of 4.81 percent. The two-year bond had started the week yielding 4.75 percent, while ten-year bonds began the week at a yield of 4.71 percent.
In the Eurozone, the October bulletin from the European Central Bank indicated that it could be near the end of its series of interest rate hikes, even though it also said that more hikes could be needed if the region’s economy continued to grow as it is now expected to do.
The two-year Schatz was up by 1.3 basis points to 3.67 percent after starting the week yielding 3.60 percent. The ten-year Bund added 1.5 basis points to a yield of 3.83 percent, from a starting yield of 3.77 percent on Monday.
Meanwhile, in the UK, longer-dated gilts saw prices decline as most analysts said they expect interest rates there to rise again in November.
Prices for US Treasury bonds were up a bit on Wednesday, and yields were lower, as investors looked for safe places to put their money in the wake of the North Korean nuclear test earlier this week and comments following that Pyongyang will treat any increased pressure from the US as a declaration of war. In addition, trade was muted ahead of the release of minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting and a speech from Richmond Fed President, who was the only board member who voted for an increase in interest rates at the meeting.
In morning trade in New York, the two-year Treasury bond dropped 3.8 basis points to 4.79 percent, while the ten-year issue fell 1.8 percent to a yield of 4.74 percent.
Most government bonds in Europe, meanwhile, held steady after a successful Schatz auction and economic growth forecasts for the last half of this year and the first half of next year that were lowered by the European Commission. Yields on the ten-year Bund dropped 0.9 percent to 3.811 percent, but the two-year Schatz was steady at a yield of 3.669 percent. In the UK, gilts held firm as well, with the two-year gilt at 5.011 percent and the ten-year gilt yielding 4.614 percent.
In Japan, meanwhile, yields were up as prices fell as the ten-year Japanese government bond added 2 basis points to 1.745 percent.
October 2, 2006
Japanese government bond yields up on Tankan figures
The Bank of Japan’s latest Tankan Survey of business sentiment sent most Japanese government bond yields higher on Monday. The ten-year bond saw yields 6.5 basis points higher to 1.740 percent. The two-year bond yields were also higher, but some issues that mature in less than a year saw yields decline.
Bond yields were lower in the United States, where the September figures from the Supply Management Institute were lower, showing manufacturing down more than had been expected. At late morning in New York, two-year Treasury bonds were down 4.1 basis points to a yield of 4.65 percent, while ten-year issues were yielding 4.60 percent, a decline of 3 basis points.
In Europe, Eurozone bond yields were lower as well after a more positive purchasing managers’ index report, which seemed to be trumped by higher prices in US bond markets. The two-year Schatz was 2.4 basis points lower to 3.553. The ten-year Bund, meanwhile, was down 2.6 basis points to a yield of 3.680 percent.
The latest purchasing managers’ index in the UK was also stronger than had been expected, sending yields on gilts higher. The two-year gilt gained 1.5 basis points to a yield of 4.939 percent, while the ten-year gilt added 0.5 basis points to 4.529 percent.
Government bonds markets saw yields up in the US, the UK and the Eurozone, while yields on Japanese government bonds were lower on Tuesday.
In the United States, a strong consumer confidence report sent Treasury bond yields up after three days of declines which had been prompted by the decision of the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold for the time being. The Conference Board put consumer confidence at 104.5 in September, above the expected reading of 103.0. At mid-morning in New York, the two-year Treasury bond was yielding 4.68 percent, a gain of 3.4 basis points, while the ten-year bond was 3.3 basis points higher to yield 4.58 percent.
In the Eurozone, bonds followed the lead of US issues. Meanwhile, a German business sentiment survey was also stronger than expected in September, adding to speculation that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again before the end of the year. Late in the day, the two-year Schatz had added 4.3 basis points to 3.515 percent and the ten-year Bund was 0.3 basis points higher to 3. 660 percent.
In Japan, government bond yields were lower as the stock market there declined and investors worried that the US could cut interest rates. Five-year yields were 3.5 basis points lower to 1.090 percent, while ten-year yields were at 1.615 percent, a drop of 2 basis points.
Yields were lower on US Treasury bonds on Thursday after the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s economic index fell to -0.4 in September. The index was at 18.5 in August, and had only been predicted to drop to 14.7 this month. The new reading indicates that manufacturing has contracted in the region, likely on the slowing housing market and lower consumer spending. Also contributing to lower yields was data showing more jobless claims last week than had been predicted.
By late morning in New York, two-year Treasury bonds were yielding 4.76 percent, a decline of 4.7 basis points. Meanwhile, ten-year issues had dropped 5.5 basis points to 4.68 percent, leading to an increase in the yield curve inversion.
Late in the day in Europe, Eurozone government bond yields were also lower. The two-year Schatz was 2.3 percent lower to a yield of 3.626 percent, while the ten-year Bund was yielding 3.758 percent, a decline of 2.9 basis points.
Yields were mixed in the UK late in the session, as the two-year gilt added 0.1 basis point to 4.979 percent, but the ten-year gilt fell by 2.7 basis points to a yield of 4.574 percent.
In Japan, the ten-year government bond was 2 basis points higher to 1.705 percent as the equities markets were slightly higher on the session. The price decline came even though there was strong demand for an auction of ¥800 billion in 20-year bonds.
September 18, 2006
Government bond yields up on interst rate concerns
Prices were down on government bonds in the Eurozone on Monday on continuing fears that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates beyond the end of the year. The fears were exacerbated by comments from ECB officials, and some analysts believe that rates could go beyond 4 percent next year. Late in the trading day, the two-year Schatz had added 3.6 basis points to a yield of 3.696 percent, while the ten-year Bund was yielding 3.829 percent, a gain of 5.4 basis points.
In the UK, gilts followed Eurozone yields upward after inflation and growth there were both revised up, setting up the possibility that the Bank of England will also raise interest rates again before the year is out. The two-year gilt added 5.7 basis points to 5.027 percent, while the ten-year gilt was 8.2 basis points higher to 4.658 percent.
Data showing that foreigners are buying fewer US Treasury bonds, along with anticipation of Tuesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve, sent yields up on Treasury bonds as well. Two-year bonds were yielding 4.91 percent, a gain of 3.8 basis points, while ten-year issues also added 3.8 basis points to 4.83 percent.
New data on consumer price inflation data sent prices of US Treasury bonds up on Friday. Both headline and core consumer prices were up by 0.2 percent in August, according to the latest survey. Also helping bonds prices to rise was a survey showing that consumer sentiment has improved in the United States. In late-morning trade in New York, the ten-year Treasury bond was down 2.6 basis points to 4.77 percent.
Eurozone bonds were also helped by better sentiment in the US after a week in which investors worried about statements from officials that tended to indicate that interest rate hikes are on the way in Europe, possibly in both October and December. By late in the session, yields on the ten-year bund were down by 3.6 basis points to 3.770 percent.
In the UK, investors were looking forward to the minutes from this month’s meeting of the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England for a hint as to where interest rates there might go next. Yields on the ten-year gilt were a bit higher, up 0.4 basis points to 4.580 percent Friday.
Prices dropped on US Treasury bonds Monday ahead of a scheduled auction of 10-year bonds on Tuesday. Also affecting prices were anticipation of new data to be released during the week. In addition, traders were exiting safe-haven trades that had been made ahead of today’s anniversary of the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington, D.C.
In late-morning trade in New York, the two-year Treasury bond had added 2.1 basis points to a yield of 4.84 percent, while ten-year bonds were 3.2 basis points higher to 4.81 percent.
In the Eurozone, investors followed early news from New York, sending yields up. The two-year Schatz added 1.9 basis points to 3.659 percent. The ten-year Bund, meanwhile, was 0.7 basis points higher to 3.798 percent.
UK gilts were also yielding more, with the two-year gilt adding 2.8 basis points to 4.894 percent and the ten-year gilt advancing by 3.2 basis points to 4.571 percent.
In Japan, however, yields on government bonds were lower after machinery orders data was lower than had been expected leading to declining expectations that interest rates will rise again soon. Economic growth there was also revised upward less than had been predicted, to an annualized 1 percent. The news sent yields on ten-year government bonds 6 basis points lower to 1.675 percent.
Prices for government bonds were up in the Eurozone, the US and the UK on Friday.
In the Eurozone, prices on bonds dropped early in the week as investors sold despite positive new data after officials of the European Central Bank made comments that indicated there are more interest rate hikes to come. Prices rose, however, on Friday as investors seemed to forget their concerns about interest rates. Still, even though yields on the ten-year Bund were 2.6 basis points lower to 3.783 percent, they were still higher than they were at the beginning of the week. In the UK, meanwhile, the ten-year gilt was 2.9 basis points lower to a yield of 4.536 percent on Friday.
At midday on Friday in New York, yields on the ten-year US Treasury bond were 2.8 basis points lower to 4.764 percent. Early in the week, prices were affected by new data on labor costs that raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again soon, but later on in the week buying increased due to what some called safe-haven buying as the anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks approached.
In Japan, on the other hand, yields were up slightly as the ten-year government bond went from a yield of 1.663 percent on Monday to 1.735 percent Friday.
Yields were up on US Treasury bonds on Wednesday as investors worried that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again. The fears came on data from the US Labor Department showing that labor unit costs were up in the second quarter. At late morning in New York, yields on two-year bond were up 3.7 basis points to 4.841 percent, while ten-year yields were at 4.823 percent, a gain of 3.8 basis points.
In the Eurozone, comments from an official of the European Central Bank as well as new data showing factory orders in German up more than had been expected sent yields up. Late in the session, the two-year Schatz had added 3.3 basis points to a yield of 3.616 percent, while the ten-year Bund was 3.2 basis points higher to 3.829 percent.
Data showed manufacturing output up in the UK for the third month in a row, sending gilt yields higher there. The two-year gilt was up 2.1 basis points to 4.881 percent. The ten-year gilt added 2.3 basis points to 4.752 percent.
In Japan, meanwhile, the ten-year government bond held steady at 1.714 percent ahead of comments by the governor of the Bank of Japan, expected at the end of its current meeting.
Bond prices rose and yields fell to their lowest levels in several months this week on slower economic growth worldwide as well as on lower rates of inflation.
Trade in US Treasury bonds was light as a number of new economic reports were issued during the week. A turning point was the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting, which indicated that while more internet rate hikes might be in store they are by no means certain. The current feeling among most analysts is that there is only a 10 percent chance that US interest rates will go up this month. In addition, August’s unemployment figures were close to expectations as 128,000 jobs were created. Average hourly earnings were only up by 0.1 percent, however, another indication that another rate hike might not be necessary.
The ten-year US Treasury bond yielded 4.73 percent on Friday, down by over 5 basis points during the week.
In the UK, ten-year gilts were also down by around 5 basis points to a yield of 4.495 percent, and have fallen by 26.5 basis points since the middle of August. Among the data affecting gilt prices were house prices that are 6.5 percent higher over the year so far, mortgage lending at a 6-month high, and retail sales up at the fastest pace in a year and a half.
In the Eurozone, the ten-year Bund also lost about 5 basis points during the week to a yield of 3.739 percent as most analysts expect that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again before the year is out.
Meanwhile, in Japan, ten-year government bonds were yielding 1.645 percent, a decline of 4.4 basis points.
Yields on US Treasury bonds were lower and prices rose on Wednesday on new data that showed the core inflation rate for the second quarter was less than originally reported, while the economy grew faster in the quarter than had been estimated earlier. The president of the Dallas Federal Reserve commented that he was still not happy with the inflation data, but that the GDP numbers were “healthy”.
Ten-year Treasury bonds were yielding 4.767 percent, a decline from their late Tuesday yield of 4.785 percent.
In the Eurozone, yields were also down ahead of the next meeting of the European Central Bank, scheduled for Thursday. The ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady this year, but analysts are looking for a hike in October. Higher prices for US Treasury bonds also helped Eurozone prices up. The ten-year Bund yielded 4.54 percent late in the session, a decline of 3 basis points.
Gilt yields in the UK were also lower late in the day, as the ten-year gilt dropped 2 basis points to 4.54 percent. Earlier in the day, bond prices lagged as new UK economic data was fairly strong, putting into question what the Bank of England will do about interest rates when it meets next. Mortgage rates and new loan approvals wee both up in July to their highest points since the beginning of the year.
August 28, 2006
Bond yields lower in Japan, up in the US, Eurozone
Yields rose on US Treasury bonds on Monday ahead of new releases of economic data and the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Fed minutes, due out Tuesday, could give some hints as to why it held interest rates steady in August and where they might be going in the future. Other data out this week is to include figures on manufacturing, payrolls, consumer confidence, and the gross domestic product.
Late morning found ten-year Treasury bonds yielding 4.805 percent, a gain of 2.2 basis points, while two-year issues had advanced by 2.1 basis points to 4.89 percent. Trade was light.
Trade was also light in Europe, due to a holiday in the UK and scant new data out of the United States. The two-year Schatz held steady at a yield of 2.509 percent, while the ten-year Bund had gained 1.3 basis points to 3.802 percent. Meanwhile, UK gilts were about even at 4.868 percent for the two-year gilt and 4.554 percent for the ten-year gilt.
Yields were down in Japan after lower inflation figures than had been expected were released last week. The two-year Japanese government bond dropped 3.7 basis points to 0.64 percent, while the ten-year bond was 3.8 basis points lower to 1.68 percent, a five-month low.
Yields dropped on Eurozone government bonds on Tuesday after the new ZEW institute survey on investor confidence resulted in its lowest level since the middle of 2001. The new numbers were interpreted as meaning that economic conditions around the world will keep interest rates from rising much, at least in the near term. The ten-year Bund was yielding 3.808 percent late in the day, a drop of 5 basis points, while the two-year Schatz was 7.6 basis points lower to 3.513 percent.
In the UK, yields on gilts were also lower, following Eurozone bonds in the absence of any new data at home, and in carryover reaction from the release last week of the latest Bank of England meeting minutes. The ten-year gilt was yielding 4.531 percent, a drop of 3.6 basis points.
Prices for US Treasure bonds were higher, as well, ahead of scheduled speeches by two Federal Reserve officials and seemingly despite a statement out of Iran that more negotiations were necessary concerning the incentive package proposed for the Middle Eastern nation to end its nuclear development program. The ten-year Treasury bond was yielding 4.81 percent compared to its late Monday yield of 4.82 percent, while the two-year issue was at a yield of 4.86 percent, unchanged from Monday.
In Japan, the yield on ten-year government bonds was 1.5 basis points lower to 1.800 percent, as most analysts expect that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates again this year.
Yields were lower on US Treasury bonds on Friday as August consumer sentiment figures were lower than had been anticipated. Also contributing to the rise in prices were remarks by the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve which indicated that the economy is beginning to slow.
Yields on the ten-year Treasury bond were down by 1 basis point at late morning on Friday and 12 basis points lower for the week to a yield of 4.859 percent. The two-year Treasury note was 0.9 basis points lower on the day and 9 basis points lower during the week to 4.896 percent.
UK gilt yields were also lower after a number of economic reports there did not help define a direction for the British economy. Yields on the ten-year gilt were down by 5.4 percent to 4.603 percent, while two-year gilts yielded 4.869, down 2.7 basis points.
In the Eurozone, the ten-year Bund dropped 1.5 basis points to 3.898 percent, while the two-year Schatz was 1 basis point lower to 3.613 percent. At the beginning of the week, yields were at 4 percent and 3.655 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, yields of Japanese government bonds were up on Friday, with the ten-year governmet bond 3.5 basis points higher to 1.855 percent, but over the week yields on the ten-year bond dropped 4.5 basis points.
In the Eurozone on Wednesday, government bond yields were up after the news that even though the Ifo confidence survey in Germany was still very healthy, it had fallen a bit from its June reading. In addition, a sale of 30-year bonds in Germany generated less demand than had been anticipated, which triggered selling in other issues.
The two-year Schatz added 2.9 basis points to 3.556 percent, while the ten-year Bund saw yields go up by 1.4 basis points to 3.977 percent.
In the UK, a positive survey from the manufacturing sector sent gilt yields higher. The two-year gilt was 1.3 basis points higher to 4.762 percent and yields on the ten-year gilt were at 4.655 percent, a gain of 2.3 basis points.
In late morning trade in New York, yields on Treasury bonds were mixed ahead of a sale of $22 billion worth of two-year issues scheduled for later in the day. Yields on existing two-year Treasury notes were 0.8 basis points higher to 5.131 percent, while ten-year issues had dropped 0.6 basis points to 5.063 percent.
In Japan, meanwhile, yields were down on government bonds there after yet another member of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy board made comments that underlined that the Bank will approach further interest rate hikes with caution. The ten-year Japanese government bond yielded 1.865 percent, a decline of 1.5 basis points.
The prices on US Treasury bonds were lower on Tuesday on mixed data that revived speculation that the Federal Reserve will not yet be ready to hold the line on interest rates when it meets next month. Consumer confidence was up in July, with The Conference Board’s index putting optimisim at 106.5, higher than the June figure of 105.4. Additionally, while the sales of existing homes was at 6.62 million in June, below the May figure of 6.71 million, sales did not drop as much as had been expected.
At late morning in New York, the two-year Treasury bond was up 3 basis points to a yield of 5.119 percent, while ten-year issues were yielding 5.067 percent, a gain of 1.8 basis points.
In the Eurozone, government bond yields moved little, with the two-year Schatz down 0.5 basis points to yield 3.521 percent but the ten-year Bund up 0.1 basis point to 3.963 percent. Meanwhile in the UK, yields on two-year gilts were 3.2 basis points higher to 4.750 percent, while the ten-year gilt gained 2 basis points to 4.620 percent.
Yields were also up on Japanese government bonds on profit-taking after last week’s price gains that came on evidence that the Bank of Japan will be cautious in raising interest rates there further. The two-year government bond was up 2.5 basis points to 0.845 percent, while the ten-year bond added 2 basis points to 1.88 percent. The 20-year Japanese government bond gained 1 basis point to 2.31 percent after a sale of ¥800 billion in 20-year bonds attracted a demand of 2.75 times the amount available for sale.
Yields were up on US Treasury bonds on Monday as safe-haven buying as Middle East conflicts continued was offset by new data showing that industrial production in the US was up double the expected amount in June. Investors were also waiting for possible guidance from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke when he testifies before a Congressional committee on Wednesday.
At late morning in New York, two-year Treasury bonds had risen 3 basis points to a yield of 5.132 percent, while ten-year yields had added 1.4 basis points to 5.083 percent.
In the Eurozone, industrial production and headline inflation data were above the targets set by the European Central Bank, leading to heightened expectations that the ECB will raise interest rates when it meets on August 3. Late in the day, the two-year Schatz was yielding 3.535 percent, a gain of 1.2 basis points. Yields on the ten-year Bund were up 0.6 basis points to a yield of 3.986 percent.
UK gilts were mixed, with the two-year issue lower by 0.7 basis points to 4.688 percent. The ten-year gilt, however, was up by 3.4 basis points to a yield of 4.614 percent.
The Japanese market was closed for the Marine Day holiday.
