Finance Markets

November 16, 2006

US core CPI up only 0.1 percent in October; dollar strengthens

Permalink: US core CPI up only 0.1 percent in October; dollar strengthens

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

Core consumer inflation was down in October, rising just 0.1 percent for a drop in the annual rate to 2.7 percent, down from 2.9 percent in September. Analysts said that while inflation is still higher than it should be, but that recent statements of concern by Federal Reserve officials seemed to be exaggerated considering that core inflation was now on the way down.

After the release of the new CPI data, the US dollar dropped briefly versus major currencies, but by mid-afternoon in New York, the greenback had added 0.1 percent against both the euro and the yen, to $1.2810 versus the euro and ¥118.10 against the yen. The dollar did not fare so well against some other currencies, however, as the South African rand added 0.6 percent to the dollar to R7.1600, while the Turkish lira gained 0.8 percent versus the greenback, to TL1.4335.

Meanwhile, the euro was not affected by yet another statement out of France, this time from French President Jacques Chirac, that members of the eurozone should have more input into monetary policy as set by the European Central Bank. The non-reaction to Mr. Chirac’s statement, added to the decision by the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates at their present level there, combined to send the yen 0.1 percent lower in relation to the euro, to ¥151.30.

Sterling was slightly higher versus both the US dollar and the euro on new data showing retail sales in the UK up by 0.9 percent in October, well ahead of the forecast of a gain of 0.3 percent. The UK currency added 0.1 percent versus the greenback, to $1.8900 versus the greenback, while it also added 0.1 percent against the euro, to £0.6775.


November 14, 2006

Euro ends stronger versus sterling

Permalink: Euro ends stronger versus sterling

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

French prime minister Dominique de Villepin made remarks Tuesday that sent the euro down for a time before recovering later in the session. Mr de Villepin said that he believes that the European Central Bank cannot be allowed to be the sole determiner of exchange rates for the euro. The remarks, which came during a meeting with subcontractors for Airbus, were widely interpreted as meaning that the prime minister thinks the euro should be weaker. Analysts were surprised that the remarks had as much of an effect on currency markets as it did, since Mr de Villepin doesn’t have power to affect the exchange rate.

Apparently most investors came to the same conclusion, since the euro recovered quickly from the losses, ending up about the same versus the US dollar at $1.2809 and adding 0.4 percent in relation to sterling to £0.6760. The shared currency was helped by the ZEW index of investor sentiment, which came in at 53.0 for November, much higher than October’s 42.9. The dollar was not helped by lower US producer prices and retail sales, while sterling did not benefit from a UK producer price index that was at 2.4 percent in October when a rise to 2.6 percent had been anticipated.

The yen, meanwhile, was stronger versus both the US dollar and the euro, adding 0.3 percent to ¥150.68 in relation to the euro and gaining 0.4 percent against the greenback to ¥117.70. The Japanese currency benefited from data showing that the Japanese economy expanded more quickly in the third quarter than had been expected, raising the possibility that the Bank of Japan might send interest rates higher before the end of the year.


November 13, 2006

Yen weakens on interest rate concerns

Permalink: Yen weakens on interest rate concerns

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The Japanese yen weakened on Monday on fears that an expected interest rate hike could reverse that nation’s economic recovery. Analysts expect the rate to go up before the new fiscal year begins in April 2007, but both the policy chief of the ruling Liberal Democratic party and a former financial services minister have said that raising rates too quickly could harm Japan’s economy.

By mid-afternoon in New York, the yen had lost 0.2 percent in relation to the euro to ¥151.34 and it was 0.5 percent lower versus the US dollar, to ¥118.15.

Sterling was lower as well, on weaker economic data than had been anticipated. Initially higher against the dollar, the UK currency dropped 0.5 percent to the greenback to $1.9015, while the UK currency was down 0.2 percent to £0.6732 against the euro.

The US dollar was 0.2 percent higher in relation to the euro to $1.2834 even though talk continued over last week’s comments from China that it is planning to diversify its foreign exchange reserves. Monday the talk continued as China’s State Information Centre, a think tank supported by the Chinese government, recommended that China should extend diversification by building its strategic reserves of bulk commodities, metals, and oil.

The Swiss franc added 0.2 percent versus the euro to SFr1.5935 on comments from the chairman of the Swiss National Bank that interest rate increases could help strengthen the currency there.

Lower metals prices hurt the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, and the South African rand as all fell in relation to the US dollar. The Canadian dollar dropped 0.5 percent to C$1.1374 against the greenback, while the Aussie fell 0.6 percent to $0.7625 to the US dollar, and the rand was 0.8 percent lower to R7.2535 to the dollar.


November 10, 2006

Dollar weaker over week

Permalink: Dollar weaker over week

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The US dollar lost value over the week as the governor of the People’s Bank of China said that his nation is looking to diversify its foreign exchange reserves. This, coupled with an announcement on state television in China that forex reserves there were above $1,000 billion for the first time in history and comments from the director of China’s National Economic Research Institute that the imbalance between US and Chinese currency is the fault of the US Treasury for printing too much money, all spurred sell-offs of the greenback. Not all analysts, however, saw the remarks as the real problem and said that they were just being used as an excuse to sell.

The dollar lost 0.4 percent during the week to the Japanese yen, to ¥117.50, while it dropped 0.7 percent to $1.9140 in relation to sterling and fell 1.1 percent to $1.2860 versus the euro.

The euro also strengthened in relation to sterling and the yen. The shared currency was 0.6 percent higher to £0.6720 against sterling, while it added 0.7 percent against the yen, to ¥151.05. Some of the euro’s strength came after comments from European Central Bank officials that indicated there are more interest rate hikes to come.


November 9, 2006

Euro stronger but sterling weakens

Permalink: Euro stronger but sterling weakens

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

As expected, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5 percent on Thursday, but the statement that accompanied announcement of the rate hike provided little guidance as to where rates will go in the future. The lack of information spurred a sell-off that sent sterling lower versus the euro. The UK currency dropped 0.6 percent in relation to the shared currency to £0.6732.

The euro was also helped by remarks from a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank that implied that further interest rate hikes in the Eurozone are coming up. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in Milan the current price of borrowing money is “too accommodating”. The euro added 0.7 percent to ¥151.40, yet another new record high.

The US dollar continued to weaken as it was reported that the nation’s trade deficit narrowed less than had been expected, to $64.3 billion. Also damaging the dollar was a statement from the governor of the People’s Bank of China that it was planning to diversify its foreign exchange reserves, which now are around 70 percent in US currency. The greenback was 0.1 percent lower against both the yen and sterling, to ¥117.80 and $1.9070 respectively, while it dropped 0.7 percent versus the euro to $1.2840.

Weak employment data in Australia sent the Australian dollar 0.4 percent lower against the dollar, to $0.7670 as the figures were said to be another sign that interest rates there have hit their ceiling for now.


November 8, 2006

Dollar nearly flat after election results

Permalink: Dollar nearly flat after election results

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The US dollar remained close to Tuesday’s levels on Wednesday in the wake of election results that put the Democratic Party in the majority in the United States House of Representatives. Control of the Senate still had not been decided on Wednesday morning due to at least one race, in Virginia, that was too close to call.

Analysts were divided on what the outcome of the election meant. Some said that the change in the balance of power would mean very little to the markets absent any other factors. Others felt that the election results were strongly dollar-negative due to the potential for stalemate in the Iraq situation between the Republican White House and the Democratic House as the Bush administration continues to press its objectives in the face of serious questioning from the House.

At mid-afternoon in New York, the greenback was even against the euro at $1.2770, while it had gained a bare 0.1 percent to ¥117.8 versus the Japanese yen.

Sterling was even in relation to the US currency at $1.9050 and dropped 0.1 percent to the euro, to £0.67.04 as investors waited for the Bank of England to make its next interest rate decision on Thursday. Most analysts believe that a rate hike from the Monetary Policy Committee is a done deal, especially after new data that shows shop prices in October going up at their fastest rate since May 2004.

In other interest rate news, the Australian dollar dropped 0.6 percent versus the greenback to $0.7680 after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates there by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, as it had been expected to do.

The Chinese renminbi added 0.1 percent to Rmb7.8719 to the dollar, a new high since its revaluation last year.


November 7, 2006

US Dollar weakens on comments

Permalink: US Dollar weakens on comments

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The US dollar was much weaker on Tuesday on comments from the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve and the governor of the Bank of Japan that resulted in sell-offs. Just after midday in New York, the greenback was down 0.7 percent versus the euro to $1.2800, 0.8 percent lower against the Japanese yen to ¥117.45, and it had fallen 0.9 percent in relation to the Swiss franc, to SFr1.2465.

Janet Yellen, president of the Fed in San Francisco, said that some nations with extra savings could decide to invest less money in the United States, but analysts pointed out that such warnings of diversification by central banks had been sounded in the past and that former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has spoken to the issue more than once in the recent past. Meanwhile, in Tokyo, Toshihiko Fukui said that the Bank of Japan should not wait for inflation to go up before raising interest rates and should instead raise rates moderately ahead of inflation. Analysts also discounted these remarks, putting them down to an attempt to moderate expectations on rates.

Sterling strengthened on the session, adding 0.1 percent against the euro and gaining 0.6 percent on the US dollar to $0.6700. The advances came after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimated that in the three months up to October, the UK economy grew at a quarterly rate of 0.7 percent and said that the Bank of England needs to raise interest rates when it meets on Thursday. It also said that it sees the likely need for another rate hike in February.

The Australian dollar also added 0.6 percent versus the greenback, to $0.7760 in anticipation of a new decision on interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia, due Wednesday.


November 6, 2006

US Dollar stronger ahead of elections

Permalink: US Dollar stronger ahead of elections

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The US dollar was stronger on Monday ahead of Tuesday’s mid-term elections as it appeared that the Democratic party could take the majority from the Republicans in the House of Representatives or the Senate. Some analysts believe that the political stand-off that could follow such a development might benefit the dollar because President George Bush would be limited in his ability to make moves that could increase world tensions. In addition, the dollar was helped by last week’s positive unemployment figures, which are seen as decreasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next year.

In mid-afternoon activity in New York, the greenback had added 0.1 percent versus the euro to $1.2700, while it gained 0.3 percent in relation to the Japanese yen to ¥118.40.

The Swiss franc was 0.2 percent lower versus the US dollar to SFr1.2565, while it dropped 0.1 percent to SFr1.5960 against the euro. The yen was also lower in relation to the euro, dropping 0.2 percent to ¥150.40.

Sterling was weaker on the announcement that manufacturing output was just steady in September, when a bit of a rise had been expected. The UK currency fell 0.2 percent in relation to the greenback to $1.8960, while it was 0.7 percent lower to £0.6700 versus the euro. The new data was not expected to stop the Bank of England from raising interest rates when it meets later in the week.

The Czech koruna was 0.4 percent higher versus the euro, to a record high of Kc27.920. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso was 0.3 percent lower to 10.824 pesos to the dollar after three bombings in separate locations in Mexico City.


November 2, 2006

Euro stronger on ECB comments on inflation

Permalink: Euro stronger on ECB comments on inflation

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The euro benefited from Thursday’s decision by the European Central Bank’s comments that strongly signal that Eurozone interest rates will rise in December. The comments came as the Bank announced that it will leave rates at 3.25 percent this month. The ECB’s president said in the remarks that “strong vigilance” against interest rates is needed. Many analysts are convinced that not only will rates rise in December, but that they will rise again after the first of the year. Strong new manufacturing data out of the Eurozone is one bit of evidence for the expected rate hikes.

By mid-afternoon in New York, the euro had added 0.2 percent against the US dollar, sterling and the Japanese yen, sitting at $1.2770 versus the greenback, at £0.6695 against sterling, and at ¥149.50 in relation to the yen. Before the decision, the euro had declined against the yen, falling as low as ¥148.86.

The US dollar dropped 0.1 percent to ¥116.90 after both the Bank of Japan and Japan’s Finance Minster made remarks that indicated a planned hike in interest rates there if the economy there continues to grow as expected.

The Australian dollar dropped 0.2 percent versus the US dollar to $0.7735 on retail sales that were slower than expected in September. Despite the new data, analysts still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent when it meets next week.


November 1, 2006

Sterling stronger as US dollar weakens

Permalink: Sterling stronger as US dollar weakens

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The US dollar was weaker on Wednesday on new data from the Institute of Supply Management that shows the manufacturing sector at its lowest level since June 2003, well below the forecast numbers. Analysts said that this new survey, coupled with other recent disappointing economic news, supports the view that the next time the Federal Reserve alters interest rates, that alteration will be in a downward direction. This view is in direct opposition to recent comments made by Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker that interest rates need to be raised further.

The greenback was 0.2 percent lower versus both the euro and the yen, to $1.2780 and ¥116.80 respectively, and down 0.3 percent against the Swiss franc to SFr1.2415 by mid-afternoon in New York.

Sterling continued to strengthen, adding 0.1 percent to £0.6680 in relation to the euro and gaining 0.2 percent to $1.9110 against the US currency. The gains came even though the UK manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was down to 53.7 in October, from 54.5 in September. Output prices, however, were up, increasing the likelihood that the Bank of England will hike interest rates when its Monetary Policy Committee meets next week.

The only major currency to fall in relation to the US dollar was the Canadian dollar, on the news of a proposal by Canada’s finance minister to end the favorable tax treatment now received by income trusts in that country. The Canadian dollar dropped 0.8 percent to C$1.1310 versus the greenback.

In Norway, the krone added 1 percent to NKr6,4690 to the US dollar and was 1.1 percent higher to NKr8.2650 versus the euro after the Norges Bank hiked the interest rate there by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent and said that further hikes could come sooner than had been expected.


October 30, 2006

US dollar mixed on growth figures

Permalink: US dollar mixed on growth figures

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

Sterling strengthened on Monday after new data showed that house prices in the UK rose at their fastest rate in two years in October and mortgage approvals were at their highest in two and a half years in September. Both reports appeared to indicate that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again when its monetary policy committee meets next week.

By the middle of the afternoon in New York, the UK currency was 0.2 percent higher against the US dollar to $1.9020, while it had added 0.5 percent to £0.6680 versus the euro, its highest level in a year and a quarter.

The US dollar, meanwhile, didn’t seem to know where to go as it gained 0.2 percent to $1.2715 versus the euro but dropped 0.1 percent to ¥117.40 in relation to the Japanese yen. This followed a decline by the greenback on Friday on the news that the US economy had not grown as much as had been hoped.

The yen added 0.3 percent to ¥149.30 against the euro as most analysts expected the Bank of Japan to hold interest rates at the current level of 0.25 percent when it meets on Tuesday. The yen was also helped by the news that the Swiss National Bank has added more yen to its foreign exchange reserves.

In Brazil, the reelection of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as president sent the real 0.3 percent lower to R$2.1340 to the US dollar.


October 26, 2006

Euro strengthens on ECB comments

Permalink: Euro strengthens on ECB comments

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The US dollar weakened on Thursday, following the decision by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to keep interest rates at 5.25 percent for another month. Perhaps even more influential than the decision not to alter the rate were the comments that accompanied the announcement, which was not sufficiently concerned about the possibility of inflation for some analysts and investors. Some analysts expect that the Fed will actually cut rates after the first of the year.

In mid-afternoon trade in New York, the dollar had dropped 0.3 percent against the Japanese yen to ¥118.70 and was 0.5 percent lower versus both the euro and sterling, to $1.2665 and $1.8870 respectively.

The euro was slightly stronger against both sterling and the yen after the president of the European Central Bank said that inflation will remain a risk in 2007 and that the Bank should “remain vigilant” in the face of inflation pressures. Such wording is sometimes seen as a sign that interest rates are likely to rise soon. The euro also got a boost from former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who said in comments to a group in Washington that both the private sector and central banks are starting to buy euro in preference to the dollar.

The euro added 0.1 percent to £0.6715 in relation to sterling, while it was 0.2 percent higher to ¥150.26 versus the yen.

The Australian dollar was 0.2 percent higher versus the US dollar to $0.7620, but the Canadian dollar was 0.4 percent lower versus the greenback to $1.1280 and the New Zealand dollar fell 1.1 percent to $ 0.6545 against the US currency on the news that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had kept interest rates at 7.25 percent.


October 25, 2006

US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady

Permalink: US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The euro gained strength on Wednesday on the heels of a new business confidence survey out of Germany. The Ifo business climate index was at 105.3 in October, up from 104.9 in September. The index had been expected to drop to 104.5. Analysts said that the growth indicated in the new data encouraged the belief that interest rates in the Eurozone will reach 4 percent in 2007. While the euro remained steady at ¥149.90 versus the Japanese currency, it had added 0.1 percent to £0.6705 in relation to sterling and was up 0.4 percent to $1.2590 versus the US dollar by mid-afternoon trade in New York.

With a trade surplus wider by 6.9 percent in September compared to the same month last year due to a growth of 20.4 percent in exports to the United States and a gain of 19.8 percent in exports to China, the yen was 0.3 percent higher versus the greenback to ¥119.10. The widening was a surprise in light of analysts expectations that Japan’s trade surplus would narrow by 10.9 percent in September.

The Australian dollar was 0.4 percent higher versus the US dollar, to a six-week high of $0.7 610 on inflation that was stronger than had been anticipated. However, the New Zealand dollar dropped 0.3 percent to $0.6610 against the greenback on inflation that was lower than predicted.

Wednesday afternoon the US Federal Reserve announced that it will leave interest rates at 5.25 percent again. While the dollar weakened against the euro initially, it returned to its level before the announcement within a few minutes. The comments released with the announcement said that while some inflation risks are still present, pressures to inflation seem, to the Fed, likely to “moderate over time”. The vote to keep rates steady was 10 to 1.


October 24, 2006

Yen weakens yet again

Permalink: Yen weakens yet again

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The Japanese yen was weaker on Tuesday despite comments from Japan’s vice minister for internal affairs that he did not see his nation’s currency declining beyond current levels. Some analysts said that the comments were meant for the consumption of European Central Bank officials and were in reference to the euro’s recent gains versus the yen. At midday in New York, the Japanese currency had fallen 0.1 percent in relation to the euro to ¥149.90, while it dropped 0.2 percent versus the US dollar, to ¥119.50.

Sterling dropped 0.1 percent versus both the dollar and the euro after new data showed that the UK economy was on a downward trend, reinforcing the opinion of some analysts that next month’s expected interest rate hike from the Bank of England is likely to be the last in the series. The UK currency stood at $1.8720 in relation to the greenback and at £0.6702 against the euro.

The US dollar was 0.1 percent stronger in relation to the euro and the Swiss franc, to $1.2540 and SFr1.2690 respectively ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, due Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates on hold this month, but many also expect the remarks accompanying that announcement to express heightened concern over inflation.

The Australian dollar added 0.1 percent versus the greenback to $0.75756 and was 0.2 percent higher against the yen to ¥90.56 after a report from the International Monetary Fund that predicted an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.


October 23, 2006

Oil prices help US dollar

Permalink: Oil prices help US dollar

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

Declining oil prices and a slight easing of the North Korean situation helped the US dollar strengthen on Monday, but investors seemed unwilling to make large commitments before the scheduled meeting of the US Federal Reserve later in the week. Most analysts expect that the Fed will once again leave interest rates on hold, but many investors are looking forward to the statement accompanying the rates decision to try to figure out just when rates might rise - or fall - again.

The greenback added 0.5 percent versus both the euro and the yen, to $1.2550 and ¥119.26 respectively, while it gained 0.7 percent in relation to the Swiss franc, to SFr1.2675.

Sterling, meanwhile, was weaker, dropping 0.2 percent against the euro, to £0.6708, and falling 0.7 percent versus the US dollar to $1.8706. While analysts expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates again in November, there is some anticipation that it will be the last hike in the series before rates begin to fall sometime next year.

The Australian dollar held steady against the US dollar at $0.7585 and added 0.4 percent versus the yen to ¥90.40 on producer price data that was stronger than had been anticipated, raising expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates soon. The Saudi Arabian riyal was also up in relation to the US currency, to SR3.7420, on expeditions that the kingdom will revalue its currency after the end of Ramadan. Meanwhile, the South African rand was 1.8 percent lower against the greenback to $7.6630 after the governor of the South African Reserve Bank warned on inflation.


October 20, 2006

Yen strengthens on week

Permalink: Yen strengthens on week

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The Japanese yen ended the week higher after the Russian central bank announced that it would buy more yen for its foreign-exchange reserves and on a report in a Japanese newspaper that the Bank of Japan will watch carry trades more closely. Even though the Bank denied that report, analysts felt that the report indicated that there are serious concerns over the issue of carry trades. The Russian remarks, meanwhile, were not only important because of the size of Russia’s foreign-exchange reserves but also because its move could indicate the beginning of a trend.

The yen added 0.1 percent during the week against the euro to ¥149.60, while it gained 0.9 percent versus the US dollar, to ¥118.70.

The greenback fell 0.8 percent in relation to the euro over the week to $1.2610, primarily on a series of new data releases that did not do much to clear up the picture concerning where the US economy is headed.

Meanwhile, sterling strengthened during the week as new data showed UK economic growth to be stronger than expected, raising the chances that the Bank of England will hike interest rates in November. The UK currency added 0.6 percent against the euro to £0.6700, while it gained 1.4 percent versus the US dollar to $1.8820.


October 18, 2006

Yen weaker after early gains

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Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The Japanese yen made gains early against the US dollar and the euro on Wednesday after newspaper reports implied that the Bank of Japan is getting ready to increase its scrutiny of carry trades. The gains were lost later in the session, however, when the Bank denied that it would watch the trades more carefully or in any new ways. While analysts said that concern over these trades were nothing new, the report seemed to confirm that the Bank was starting to take the issue, which has to do with borrowing funds in less expensive yen then investing in higher-yielding assets abroad, more seriously.

Early in the day the yen traded at ¥118.33 versus the US dollar but it later dropped 0.4 percent to ¥119.10 to the dollar. The yen was at a three-week high of ¥148.49 against the euro but ended up 0.2 percent lower to ¥149.05 to the euro by mid-afternoon in New York.

The US dollar was stronger on the day after new data showed that new housing starts in the US were up 5.9 percent to 1.77 million in September, ahead of expectations of 1.62 million new starts. Some analysts discounted the figures as new data also showed that issuance of new building permits are at their lowest level since 2001. Still, the dollar was up by 0.2 percent against sterling, the euro, and the Swiss franc, to $1.8670, $1.2510, and Sfr1.2710 respectively.


October 17, 2006

Yen continues to benefit from Russian purchases

Permalink: Yen continues to benefit from Russian purchases

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

New data that showed consumer prices up 2.4 percent in the UK in September, down from August’s figure of 2.5 percent, did nothing to change the opinion of most analysts that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again in September. Most of the declines was said to be due to dropping oil prices, while pressures toward inflation remained in place in other sectors. In addition, the UK retail price index was up to an annual 3.6 percent in September, further increasing the likelihood of a rate hike.

All this news helped sterling to add 0.4 percent to £0.6707 against the euro and to gain 0.5 percent versus the US dollar to $1.8700 by mid-afternoon trade in New York on Tuesday.

The dollar was also lower in relation to the euro, dropping 0.1 percent to $1.2540, despite new data which showed capital inflows into the United States higher than had been predicted and a drop in September’s industrial production in the US. The new data was dismissed by some analysts as being of little significance.

The yen continued to get help from Monday’s news from Russia that it was buying more of the Japanese currency for its foreign exchange reserves. This was notable for a couple of reasons. Not only are Russia’s reserves the third largest in the world, but new buying by Russia could lead to purchases by other central banks, which currently are deficient in yen holdings.

The Japanese currency added 0.2 percent to ¥148.90 in relation to the euro, while it gained 0.3 percent to ¥118.65 versus the US dollar.


October 16, 2006

Yen stronger on Russian remarks

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Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The Japanese yen strengthened on Monday after the central bank in Russia said it has begun purchasing the currency as part of its reserves. The first deputy chairman of the Russian bank said at a conference in Moscow that it wants to diversify. By mid-afternoon in New York, the yen had added 0.3 percent against both the US dollar and the euro, to ¥119.25 and ¥149.26 respectively.

Sterling was stronger as well on new data indicating that the UK housing market is growing, which tended to confirm most analysts’ opinions that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again in November. The Rightmove housing survey showed that house prices rose 2 percent in October, which put the annual inflation figure for houses to 11.5 percent. The UK currency was up 0.2 percent to $1.8602 versus the US dollar, while it also gained 0.2 percent to £0.6726 in relation to the euro.

The US dollar held on to Friday’s gains versus the euro, staying steady at $1.2510 against the shared currency. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar added 0.2 percent to $0.7527 in relation to the greenback. Many observers believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates in November.


October 11, 2006

US dollar holds gains but does not advance

Permalink: US dollar holds gains but does not advance

Filed under: Forex, USD, GBP, Euro, Economy, Yen

The dollar was nearly unchanged Wednesday but managed to hold on to recent gains as the chance of an interest rate cut early next year was thought to be dropping. The opinion that a rate cut is not in the cards came largely from remarks by Federal Reserve officials that indicated no inclination to drop rates even though the US housing market has been weak recently. Not all analysts, however, see the dollar as remaining strong and predicted a pressure toward deflation in the next year due to the decline in oil prices.

At midday in New York, the greenback was steady against both the euro and the Swiss franc, at $1.2540 and SFr1.2700 respectively, while it dropped 0.1 percent to ¥119.50 versus the Japanese yen.

Sterling was stronger on the session, adding 0.1 percent to £0.6755 in relation to the euro and 0.2 percent to $1.8570 versus the US dollar. The advances came after the governor of the Bank of England commented in a speech that investors should not overreact to September’s decline in inflation in the UK. The Bank of England is still expected to hike interest rates in November.

Declining oil prices led to weakness in the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar. The krone was 0.3 percent lower to Nkr6.707 to the dollar, while the Canadian dollar also dropped 0.3 percent to C$1.1361 to the dollar. Norway is the third-largest oil producer in the world, while Canada produces a number of raw materials.


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