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Monday 25th of May 2009
December 5, 2006

EIA issues new oil supply and demand, price forecasts


by Elaine Frei

Crude oil prices were a bit lower again on Tuesday, still reacting to predictions of warmer than normal weather over most of the United States for the next couple of weeks. Brent crude January contracts were 7 cents lower to $63.38 per barrel. Meanwhile, January delivery West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 10 cents to $62.34 per barrel.

The Energy Information Administration published new long-term forecasts for average oil prices and supply and demand. The EIA now says that the average price for a barrel of oil will be $57.47 per barrel in 2010, 21.5 percent higher than the $47.29 per barrel it predicted last year. The increase was based on delays it sees in new supplies being put on the market in Africa and Latin America.

The EIA says that it believes that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 percent per year until it reaches 91.05 million barrels per day in 2030. Supply from OPEC is expected to go up 1.2 percent per year to 44.95 million barrels per day in 2030, while non-OPEC supply will go up by 1.8 percent per year until it reaches 43.32 million barrels per day in 2030. Demand for ethanol will double in the US by 2012, according to the EIA, to 11.2 billion gallons per year.

In the metals markets on Tuesday, lead dropped 0.2 percent to $1,735 per tonne, but not before hitting a new record high price of $1,744 per tonne when London Metal Exchange inventories dropped to 41,075 tonnes, its lowest level of the year. Other base metals prices were higher on the session. Zinc rose only slightly, to $4,500 per tonne, while aluminium added 0.9 percent to $2,837.5 per tonne ahead of the expiration of December contracts at the end the day’s session. Nickel was 1.6 percent higher to $4,250 per tonne. Copper was up 2 percent to $7,140 per tonne when LME stockpiles dropped by 325 tonnes.

Gold was 0.3 percent lower to $643.50 per troy ounce.

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